22 posts categorized "Peak Oil"

04 May 2008

Food Crisis: The Silent Tsunami

I've been meaning to write more about the food crisis, but I've been studying for my massage exams coming up soon, so it's bee a little quite on this front.

The next thing I was going to mention in my exploration of food was something Mahatma Gandhi espoused. He said that people should try to look after themselves. If they could not, then the family should look after them. And if the family cannot look after them, the village should. And if the village couldn't the region should etc.

In short, he espoused self-reliance and autonomy at the most local level possible.

Particularly in the developing world, I believe that developing countries are better off developing their internal economies and their internal level of affluence at the most local level. Because the globalised market is pitted against them.

Take supermarkets sourcing vegetables for example. They don't buy from poor individuals, they buy from large companies that pay lots of workers small wages. The trickle down effect of wealth is negligible particularly if individuals and families, becoming landless through the process of industrialisation - then sink below the level of subsistence because they can no longer grow their own food or forage on common land.

These people would be far better off if they had some land on which they could grow food, and  be able participate in small scale economic activities and production on a local level as part of a local economy, rather than being employed by large companies and the smallest and least powerful units in a massive globalised industrial complex.

Globalisation was supposed to make everyone richer.

My professional insight and analysis of this is this: bollocks. It was designed to leverage open national economies across the world to the clutches of large companies seeking new markets, cheaper labour with fewer human rights, supporting their transnational expansion.

Globalisation was supposed to work because of "comparative advantage theory". In short, we all do what we're best at. On a superficial level, it sounds quite smart. I mean, no-one can be good at everything so it;s good to share jobs out.

That's as may be in a town or a city with people, but on a global level it doesn't work for a number of reasons - prior accumulation of capital and information advantage through colonisation of countries; inequal distribution of world resources (forests, minerals, raw materials); different weather patterns etc. etc.

So it ends up being like this: one country which has already got the money and resources, technical knowledge and capital, starts producing computer chips. Then another country without the benefit of similar development and support and resources, gets to be good at making bananas. Who do you think is going to turn out to be richest?

I think that in the long term (and this is quite apart from the forthcoming necessity as a condition of peak oil) we are all better off by becoming more local. Because local economies are going to be what matters in the post carbon age.

In the age of peak oil and resource depletion, efficiency is key. And with spiralling fuel and food prices, globalised economics will actually come to be seen as a bloated, wasteful and inefficient means of meeting our real, basic needs.

To meet the coming challenges, we need to localise our food production, and localise to the closest possible unit - like Mahatma Gandhi's sentiments above. This has happened with Cuba in its (albeit artificial) experience of peak oil. Something like 50% of Havana's vegetable food is produced within Havana itself.

The best way of maintaining food security will be for it to be produced as close to home as possible. Local independence and self-reliance unhitches people from the trials and the uncertainty of global food economics.

Which is why I think we should all be growing our own, and participating localised food economies.

Although it's more contingent for people in developing countries to start moving towards food independence, it's only slightly less relevant for us here in the UK because we're richer. The changes will certainly hit us where it hurts sooner or later.

And I've wondered for a long time whether all this isn't just crazy thinking and maybe I'm some crazed doomster survivalist just itching for societal breakdown.

But then I read this evening on the BBC that the results of a UNESCO report cites a healthy proportion of what I'm saying here. The WTO chief says aid should focus on improving agriculture.

It's late and I'm not sure I have an easy conclusion to all of this. Perhaps I'll just leave it there for tonight.

But I am interested in your opinions. What do you think about food crises being reported around the world? What's the solution? I'd love to hear from you.

 

13 April 2008

Food, Biofuel and Peak Oil: No-one gets left behind.

This is about the coming food shortages.

Well, I say coming. What I actually mean is that it is already happening for some.

There were the Mexico Corn riots where hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets because the price of corn had gone up 400%.

Because the price of oil is so high, it is more profitable for farmers to produce and sell corn for the biofuel market where it fetches higher prices.

That's land not being used to feed people.

The rush to produce corn has caused the world price of fertiliser to double in 2007 meaning that the poor farmers in sub saharan Africa who really need the fertiliser to grow stuff, may well not be able to afford it - producing less food in that region.

The price of wheat has rocketed too. Kazakhstan, Argentina and Russia have all put export restrictions on wheat. Source: BBC

The World Food Programme has outlined stark choice of getting more money, or rationing and feeding fewer people (this isn't luxury stuff, we're talking about the basics to simply stay alive and maintain a basic level of health to escape disease and malnutrition). Source: BBC

According to Independent Bangladesh, wheat is up more than 180%, soybeans are up 82% and rice has doubled in the past year. In America, 16% of land formerly planted with wheat and soybeans is now growing corn, most of it going into biofuel.

The price of rice doubling means that a 2kg bag of rice now costs half a day's wages. This is about the margin of survival, not luxuries. (Independent Bangladesh)

We're beginning to see a convergence in food and energy prices. Right now, it's not just because of biofuel, but at heart I believe, we are seeing the beginning effects of peak oil with oil at $100 plus per barrel being the main trigger for all of this.

There are other reasons of course which I will briefly spell out here:

  • Inundations in some parts of the world, drought in others (shifting weather patterns are a feature of global warming
  • Meat production - growing affluent markets such as China are increasing the demand for beef and more grain is needed to feed the beef animals

If, as I suspect (and I am not an educated commentator, I surf and find things out in my spare time) that peak oil has in fact hit and this is the frontier of what is to come, then it shows a haunting overture to what is to come.

And here’s the central point:

I really absolutely believe that we can all get through it. I really do.

But it's going to be much bigger than a battle for food. It's going to be a showdown between the twin forces selfishness and fear (in all its manifestations, including denial) on the one hand, and love and compassion on the other.

There is a classic line in the kids cartoon movie Lilo & Stitch: "no-one gets left behind" and that's the policy we have to take.

No-one gets left behind. Whatever happens we’ve got to make sure everybody is fed.

How do we do that, and how does it relate to our individual actions, how does it relate to what I can do every day to be part of that change right here?

That’s what I am going to explore in my blog over the next few weeks.

Blatant plagiarist that I am, I am going to call it Digging for Victory.
.

09 March 2008

Peak Oil oges Public

At last, peak oil is entering the vocabulary of politicians and businessmen!

Ken Livingstone has mentioned it as an opportunity, and Richard Branson has acknowledged peak oil within as little as 6 years.

Not only that, but Monty Don in his Around the World in 80 Gardens visited Cuba, and has written about it in Gardener's World.

I don't know any of these people. But I do know our actions have helped bring it gradually into the public consciousness.

And I'll say this in really big letters to people who are burying their head in the sand and not doing anything about the problems as well as the people fighting and becoming disillusioned because it looks like a losing battle:

We can, we are already changing the world.

So for the fighters in this world, the hopeful, the people making a difference, give yourself a pat on the back today and say "well done, good job old boy".

Then lick your finger and chalk one up on the blackboard of eternity, and remember we're playing to win.

02 March 2008

World Views

Cuba's Response to Peak Oil

04 August 2007

When the energy goes...

Looks like Gazprom is trying to cut the gas supply to Belarus again (reported in Business Week). Belarus apparently have not paid their bill after the price hike last year and if they don't do so, the volume of gas going through will be cut by 45%.

This was after Gazprom more than doubled the price of each unit of gas from $46 to a punitive $100 in 2006 which, of course, Belarus naturally balked at until it's arm was twisted by the spectre of the gas being cut off.

Most of Europe's gas also comes through pipelines through Belarus too, though the flow will apparently be unaffected (unless Belarus does something to it).

I expect over the next 15-20 years there will be a lot more of this sort of thing as our natural resources dry up in some parts of the world and remain abundant in others.

Those who control the energy, the oil and the gas, will have the upper hand in all of this. Which for the western developed world in particular, doesn't look rosy since we're running out of our own. And it will play havoc with geopolitics and what is commonly referred to as 'the world order'.

Did I say that one teaspoon of oil can push a car 100 metres? As my friend Sarah said, we are absolutely spoiled because of oil. Without it, and of course all this hinges on 'peak oil', we will be living very different lives.

I think market economics will act as a big buffer. As the price of oil goes up, the price of commodities made with oil (fertilisers, anything plastic, anything metal or glass which needs smelted - actually quite a lot of stuff) will go up too in order to reflect their true cost. And if they are too expensive, we just won't use them any more. I think car driving will be a case in point.

Politicians are always telling us that biofuels will solve the problems, as will the hydrogen economy. Well, indications are that bio fuels will track the price of oil sky high, make it economically preferential for commercial farmers to grow fuel and not food. With less food being grown, and soaring global demand, the price of food will rise massively.

As for the hydrogen economy, it got a lot of interest and was bouyed with venture capital with the brief exuberance of the markets, but nothing viable on a large scale has been created so far which can mean we can sustain the same way of life. The predictions are a bit like those of the 1950's where by 2007 we would have colonised the moon, lifing a life of eternal leisure with robots to do all our work. Excuse me while I guffaw and snort at that... 

But I think that over the next 20 years, with prices of fuel and food going up as a result of emergent energy shortages (and I know how dangerous it is to say that, because I have read books from the 1970's predicting that and it hasn't happened yet...), that I really want to be able to grown our own food, and raise my own meat (rabbits, chickens, etc.) Quite apart from the pleasure of growing things, I reckon it could well end up cheaper than working for the money to buy it...

20 April 2007

What is Permaculture?

This came through to my inbox courtesy of the Naturewise yahoo group in London. It's a program about the concept of permaculture featuring Bill Mollison. I have watched the first part and it's good, so I thought it would be worth sharing with you - it's all hosted on YouTube:

Part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUr4uPe9WBk

Part 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g2mmqqEn08

Part 3:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ye90FxJmuw0

Part 4:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlPZKggxZ0E

Part 5:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPokZm_z9zM

Part 6:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bda8TbW9MrQ

I can't wait to go on my permaculture course later this year and really get my hands stuck into al this stuff. I can tell that, as a design system that optimises the relationships between things for maximum productivity with minimum environmental impact and effort, it's going to be something that is right up my street.

Have a great day,

Rob

P.S. If you want to save time and get my posts by email,  you can use the sign-up box on the right hand side of this page. I've started writing my posts like emails, and I'm learning to keep my posts shorter and more digestible!

P.P.S The banana bread looks fantastic.

29 March 2007

The End of Suburbia

Last night I went to Haringey to see The End of Suburbia. Along with the Cuba documentary, these are the two main films that are out there about peak oil. It's must see, chilling stuff.

23 March 2007

Free Book Download: Plan B 2.0 - Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble

Planb_2Every now and then you come across a book and you want to buy everyone you know a copy of it. This is one of those books.

We know what the problems are for the planet. Now it's time to get behind a solution.

Written by the president of the Earth Policy Institute, Lester Brown, it's an examination of the problems we face right now and how we can make the transition to a new economy which is sustainable - without overshoot, without collapse - and solving third world poverty at the same time.

I haven't read it all yet, and I will review it when I have finished it, but so far this book does what no other book I've read so far has done: it's putting together all the solutions we know we already have, and envisioning them on a planetary scale.

It is big picture stuff. It's about solutions and not problems.

More than ever, we need a shared vision which we can buy into collectively - at all levels - because too many of us just feel like 'individuals doing our bit' which can be lonely sometimes, and frustrating when we see the prevalence of the problems.

More than ever we need the hope and the optimism that we can really bring about change in a cogent and structured way. This book shows how it could all knit together in a plan for a new economy - Plan B.

Whether you buy a copy of Plan B 2.0 - Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble or you download chapters for free it's a book I think will be very important.

I'll try and review it in the next two weeks, but you can dip in and out of it and judge for yourself by visiting the Plan B 2.0 minisite at the Earth Policy Institute.

22 March 2007

Free & Subsidised UK Composting, Wormery & Water Butt Schemes.

Gkj I am so unbelievably impressed with Hackney Council right now. In the past few weeks they have implemented a blue box scheme for compostable waste. It's composted in Edmonton - which is just 7 miles away and the result is used by the council in local parks and suchlike.

Now, I was in bed with a cup of tea thinking (as I am wont to do) about stuff this morning. I worked out that if just 1 in 10 people in Hackney composted just 2.5kg of vegetable waste each week, it would save the transportation of 2.6 million kilos of waste around the borough each year, reducing our carbon footprint even further.

So I phone up Hackney council asking about subsidised or free (here's hoping) home composting bins. It turns out they have a deal with a company called Original Organics Ltd in Devon. Not only do they offer composting bins substantially subsidised by Hackney Council, they also offer heavily subsidised wormeries. Woohoo!

I have always, and forever, wanted a wormery but never bought one as they have been quite expensive (I have seen models selling for £80 and more).

Here is the current price list (correct in March 2007) for anyone who wants a wormery, a composter or a water butt and lives in the borough of Hackney:

  • The Original Wormery - £17.99 (save £31.96)
  • The Junior Wormery - £12.99 (save £18.46)
  • Rotal 220litre Composter - £9.99 (save £9.96)
  • Rotal 300litre Composter - £9.99 (save £12.96)
  • Garden King 220litre Composter - £10.99 (save £13.96)
  • Garden King 330litre Composter - £12.99 (save £14.96)
  • Rain Sava Water Butt - £22.50
  • Water butt Stand - £9.98
  • Down Pipe Connector Kit - £6.98

Delivery is free, but it will take approximately 3-4 weeks. Alternatively you can pay £4.95 and have it delivered within 5 working days. Please contact Original Organics directly to order them.

What if I don't live in Hackney? For other people looking for schemes in other parts of the UK you might want to check out these:

This list is far from exhaustive (please leave a comment if you know of any more), but it shows how the tide is turning and how questions of resource use are coming to the forefront of both local councils and companies. 

It's through the little actions we'll win this.

I'll try to build a more exhaustive resource over the next couple of months - not only do these schemes save money, resources and carbon, but the more we use them and ask for them, the more we positively reinforce the message back to these organisations that they're doing something good and that they are supported and going in the right direction.

Sorry to my chums outside of the UK - this has been a very local post - but if you know of any organisations that are doing this kind of thing elsewhere, please leave a comment.

All the best,

Rob

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