This is about the coming food shortages.
Well, I say coming. What I actually mean is that it is already happening for some.
There were the Mexico Corn riots where hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets because the price of corn had gone up 400%.
Because the price of oil is so high, it is more profitable for farmers to produce and sell corn for the biofuel market where it fetches higher prices.
That's land not being used to feed people.
The rush to produce corn has caused the world price of fertiliser to double in 2007 meaning that the poor farmers in sub saharan Africa who really need the fertiliser to grow stuff, may well not be able to afford it - producing less food in that region.
The price of wheat has rocketed too. Kazakhstan, Argentina and Russia have all put export restrictions on wheat. Source: BBC
The World Food Programme has outlined stark choice of getting more money, or rationing and feeding fewer people (this isn't luxury stuff, we're talking about the basics to simply stay alive and maintain a basic level of health to escape disease and malnutrition). Source: BBC
According to Independent Bangladesh, wheat is up more than 180%, soybeans are up 82% and rice has doubled in the past year. In America, 16% of land formerly planted with wheat and soybeans is now growing corn, most of it going into biofuel.
The price of rice doubling means that a 2kg bag of rice now costs half a day's wages. This is about the margin of survival, not luxuries. (Independent Bangladesh)
We're beginning to see a convergence in food and energy prices. Right now, it's not just because of biofuel, but at heart I believe, we are seeing the beginning effects of peak oil with oil at $100 plus per barrel being the main trigger for all of this.
There are other reasons of course which I will briefly spell out here:
- Inundations in some parts of the world, drought in others (shifting weather patterns are a feature of global warming
- Meat production - growing affluent markets such as China are increasing the demand for beef and more grain is needed to feed the beef animals
If, as I suspect (and I am not an educated commentator, I surf and find things out in my spare time) that peak oil has in fact hit and this is the frontier of what is to come, then it shows a haunting overture to what is to come.
And here’s the central point:
I really absolutely believe that we can all get through it. I really do.
But it's going to be much bigger than a battle for food. It's going to be a showdown between the twin forces selfishness and fear (in all its manifestations, including denial) on the one hand, and love and compassion on the other.
There is a classic line in the kids cartoon movie Lilo & Stitch: "no-one gets left behind" and that's the policy we have to take.
No-one gets left behind. Whatever happens we’ve got to make sure everybody is fed.
How do we do that, and how does it relate to our individual actions, how does it relate to what I can do every day to be part of that change right here?
That’s what I am going to explore in my blog over the next few weeks.
Blatant plagiarist that I am, I am going to call it Digging for Victory.
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